2018 attempt
- Route
- Bangladesh to Myanmar
- Announced number
- 2,260 listed
- Documented outcome
- Did not proceed on the scheduled day.
- Evidence date
- 15 Nov 2018
Submitted names, clearance for return and completed returns are different measures; the figures below cannot be added together.
2019 clearance
- Route
- Bangladesh to Myanmar
- Announced number
- 3,450 cleared
- Documented outcome
- No willingness among those interviewed; not all 3,450 were reported as interviewed.
- Evidence date
- 22 Aug 2019
2023 pilot
- Route
- Bangladesh to Myanmar
- Announced number
- 1,176 proposed
- Documented outcome
- Pilot halted.
- Evidence date
- 25 Aug 2026
2025 eligibility
- Route
- Bangladesh to Myanmar
- Announced number
- 180,000 eligible
- Documented outcome
- No matching completed-return count established.
- Evidence date
- 25 Aug 2026
2026 transfer
- Route
- Malaysia to Myanmar
- Announced number
- 1,476 in first phase; 5,000 in wider plan
- Documented outcome
- Transfer reported. Rohingya participation unconfirmed.
- Evidence date
- 29 Sep 2026
| Initiative | Route | Announced number | Documented outcome | Evidence date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 attempt | Bangladesh to Myanmar | 2,260 listed | Did not proceed on the scheduled day. | 15 Nov 2018 |
| 2019 clearance | Bangladesh to Myanmar | 3,450 cleared | No willingness among those interviewed; not all 3,450 were reported as interviewed. | 22 Aug 2019 |
| 2023 pilot | Bangladesh to Myanmar | 1,176 proposed | Pilot halted. | 25 Aug 2026 |
| 2025 eligibility | Bangladesh to Myanmar | 180,000 eligible | No matching completed-return count established. | 25 Aug 2026 |
| 2026 transfer | Malaysia to Myanmar | 1,476 in first phase; 5,000 in wider plan | Transfer reported. Rohingya participation unconfirmed. | 29 Sep 2026 |
Each initiative links to its sources below. Evidence dates belong to the reported outcome; a review date does not turn an older report into a new one.
The first scheduled return attempt
Did not proceed- Announced number
- 2,260 people on the initial list
- Announcement
- The bilateral process selected refugees for a November return.
- Documented outcome
- No one on the initial list agreed to return on the scheduled day.
- Evidence through
- 15 November 2018
The result concerns this organised attempt, not all individual border movements.
A second list cleared for return
No willingness among interviewees- Announced number
- 3,450 people cleared by Myanmar
- Announcement
- Myanmar supplied names through the bilateral working group; UNHCR and Bangladesh interviewed families about their wishes.
- Documented outcome
- UNHCR reported that none of the refugees interviewed wished to repatriate at that time. The statement did not say all 3,450 had been interviewed.
- Evidence through
- 22 August 2019
Administrative clearance was not consent to return.
The pilot repatriation project
Halted- Announced number
- 1,176 people proposed for the first phase
- Announcement
- Bangladesh and Myanmar developed a pilot, including verification interviews and a visit to Rakhine.
- Documented outcome
- Reporting in August 2026 describes the 2023 pilot as halted as fighting intensified. UNHCR’s March 2023 assessment had found conditions unsuitable for sustainable return.
- Evidence through
- 25 August 2026
A visit to assess conditions is distinct from a completed repatriation.
The 180,000 eligibility announcement
Eligibility announced; return unconfirmed- Announced number
- 180,000 names identified as eligible
- Announcement
- Bangladesh said Myanmar had identified eligible names from a list of 800,000 submitted during 2018–2020. Another 70,000 awaited further scrutiny.
- Documented outcome
- The announcement records eligibility, not completed movement. The August 2026 report still describes repatriation as stalled; it does not supply a completed-return count for this list.
- Evidence through
- 25 August 2026
No conversion rate is calculated because a matching outcome count is not established.
Malaysia’s first transfer takes place
Transfer reported; Rohingya participation unconfirmed- Announced number
- 1,476 Myanmar nationals in the first phase of a wider 5,000-person programme.
- Announcement
- The first operation was scheduled for 29 September.
- Documented outcome
- Bernama reported that the 1,476 detainees were sent aboard Myanmar naval vessels on 29 September. AP reported that Rohingya inclusion and the claim of voluntary return were not independently established.
- Evidence through
- 29 September 2026; sources reviewed 22 October 2026.
MSF warned that returns were unsafe while conflict and restrictions on humanitarian access continued. A documented transfer is not, by itself, evidence of safe and voluntary return. This route is separate from Bangladesh.
Reviewed 22 October 2026. “Unconfirmed” means these sources do not establish an outcome; it is not a recorded zero. Historical outcomes retain their evidence dates. The 11 October Bangladesh statement calls for stronger regional diplomacy but supplies no matching outcome count for the 180,000-name list. BSS · 11 October 2026 ↗
Cite this page
Roy, Safen. “Return promises and outcomes.” The Rohingya Permanence Project. Last reviewed 22 October 2026. https://rohingyabd.safenroy.com/returns/
Please cite the original sources linked on this page for specific figures and statements.